Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
